Marijuana Bubbles

THCX is Innovation Shares second ETF. It joins a crowding market of marijuana funds, which is soon to also include products from Amplify and Global X.

Analysis – Nice idea, but I’m not stoned enough to buy

Everyone knows marijuana stocks are in a bubble. To give a quick shopping list of reasons why:

1. Marijuana is a weed you can grow in your backyard. It is not like tobacco or coffee which are capital and labour intensive to grow. There are no barriers to entry in marijuana farming and never will be.
2. Relatedly, jurisdictions where marijuana commands a high price do so precisely because it is illegal. Criminalisation is what creates barriers to entry. Dealers and farmers face legal risk and the risk they face has to be compensated. 
3. In states where recreational marijuana is legalised, like Oregon, dealers are already reporting oversupply and massive price drops.

Having said all that, listing a marijuana ETF – or any ETF that tracks a bubble – is kind of smart. Why? Another shopping list:

1. Your assets will go up faster, carried by the bubble.
2. The niche exposure allows you to charge a higher margin.
3. As publicly traded products, ETFs are an appropriate vehicle for catering to the bubble buying retail crowd who enjoy playing hot potato with overvalued stocks. (For those wishing to view such creatures, visit Reddit group Wall St Bets) 
4. You can roll out bubble trackers in safe knowledge that Vanguard and BlackRock won’t chase you, as they’re too concerned about reputation risk.