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Marijuana Bubbles

USA

Another Marijuana ETF

Innovation Shares is listing a new marijuana ETF, in what is becoming one of the most popular thematic niches in 2019.

The Cannabis ETF (THCX) will invest in an index of cannabis companies, which are defined as those making 50% of their revenue from marijuana and hemp. The fund holds 35 stocks at the time of writing. It charges 0.95%.

THCX is Innovation Shares second ETF. It joins a crowding market of marijuana funds, which is soon to also include products from Amplify and Global X.

Ticker Fund Name Domicile AUM (US$ millions) TER (% p.a.) Inception
MJ ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF USA $1,150.00  0.75 2015
HMMJ Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF Canada $1,097.28 0.87 2017
YOLO AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF USA $60.20  0.74 2019
ACT AdvisorShares Vice ETF USA $14.07  0.75 2017

Analysis – Nice idea, but I’m not stoned enough to buy

Everyone knows marijuana stocks are in a bubble. To give a quick shopping list of reasons why:

  1. Marijuana is a weed you can grow in your backyard. It is not like tobacco or coffee which are capital and labour intensive to grow. There are no barriers to entry in marijuana farming and never will be.
  2. Relatedly, jurisdictions where marijuana commands a high price do so precisely because it is illegal. Criminalisation is what creates barriers to entry. Dealers and farmers face legal risk and the risk they face has to be compensated. 
  3. In states where recreational marijuana is legalised, like Oregon, dealers are already reporting oversupply and massive price drops.

Having said all that, listing a marijuana ETF – or any ETF that tracks a bubble – is kind of smart. Why? Another shopping list:

  1. Your assets will go up faster, carried by the bubble.
  2. The niche exposure allows you to charge a higher margin.
  3. As publicly traded products, ETFs are an appropriate vehicle for catering to the bubble buying retail crowd who enjoy playing hot potato with overvalued stocks. (For those wishing to view such creatures, visit Reddit group Wall St Bets) 
  4. You can roll out bubble trackers in safe knowledge that Vanguard and BlackRock won’t chase you, as they’re too concerned about reputation risk.

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Bernie Thurston

Bernie Thurston is the founder and CEO of Ultumus, a leading provider of ETF and index data, calculation, and workflow solutions. With over 20 years of experience in financial technology, Bernie has been at the forefront of index and ETF innovation since 2003.

His finance career began at Markit, where as Managing Director for Equities he designed and developed products for index and ETF composition and dividend forecasting from 2003 to 2011. He then founded and led DeltaOne Solutions as Managing Director, building it into a global provider of index and ETF trading data and technology services. The company managed over 100,000 multi-asset class products before being acquired by Markit in 2015.

Following the acquisition, while working for an ETF issuer, Bernie identified fundamental issues in how index and ETF data was represented across the industry. This led him to found Ultumus in 2016, building solutions for ETF primary market operations. Under his leadership, Ultumus has grown into a market leader serving major financial institutions globally, with its ETF Order Management System (OMS) supporting create and redeem workflows worldwide and its PCF platform calculating and distributing portfolio composition files for ETF issuers across every major market.

Bernie sold Ultumus to SIX Group in 2021, where it continues to expand across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific. Known for building lasting teams and leveraging cutting-edge technology, Bernie is focused on establishing Ultumus as the backbone of the global index and ETF industry through standardisation and automation.

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