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New Listings: The Firm Built on Not Forecasting Returns Has Launched a Fund With the Ticker CAGR

The Toronto financial district skyline at dusk, home of the Toronto Stock Exchange

There is a species of asset manager whose entire intellectual position is that nobody can reliably predict what anything will return, and one of them has just listed a product under the ticker CAGR.

 

Avantis CIBC Asset Allocation and World Equity ETFs (CAKE, CAGR and CAGX, Toronto Stock Exchange)

Avantis is the systematic, evidence-based end of the industry. Its whole register is quiet competence: factor tilts, low turnover, no stories, no forecasts. Partnered with CIBC, it has now brought three asset allocation and global equity funds to the Toronto Stock Exchange, and given two of them the tickers CAKE and CAGR.

CAKE is the balanced one. Sixty percent equities, forty percent bonds, the single most sensible portfolio ever constructed, filed under a ticker that says you can have your cake and eat it. CAGR is the growth-tilted sibling at eighty/twenty, named after a metric that describes what already happened, attached to a fund family whose founding premise is that you cannot know what happens next.

The third, CAGX, is the quietly radical one. It holds roughly three percent Canadian equity, which is close to Canada's actual weight in global markets and dramatically less than Canadian investors are used to owning. Telling a domestic audience that ninety-seven percent of their money should be abroad is a far bolder act than any leverage multiple, and nobody will notice, because the other two have funnier tickers.


Harbor AlphaEdge Mid and Small Cap Core, Value and Growth ETFs (AEMC, AEMG, AEMV, AESB, AESG and AESL, NYSE)

Six funds arrived at once, and together they reconstruct something I did not expect to see rebuilt: the style box. Mid-cap core, mid-cap growth, mid-cap value, small-cap core, small-cap growth, small-cap value. A neat grid of exposures, each one a cell.

The style box was the organising logic of the mutual fund era. It gave advisers a way to fill a page and clients a way to feel diversified, and it was largely eaten by the rise of the total market index fund, which pointed out that owning all nine boxes at once is both cheaper and considerably less work. Its return in ETF form, at six cells in a single batch, is either a considered bet that advisers still want to allocate by grid or a very efficient way to occupy shelf space. The tickers hint at the former: AESB uses B for blend, the actual style box word for core, which is the kind of detail you only include if you expect the audience to recognise it.

My favourite thing here is AESG. It is the small cap growth fund. It has nothing to do with sustainable investing whatsoever. It simply sits in the data looking like an ESG product, and it will be mistyped into screeners by tired people for years.


Hedgeye Hedged Bitcoin ETF (HBIT, NYSE)

Hedgeye sells research. Subscriptions, macro signals, strong opinions delivered with conviction. The natural end point of that business model, it turns out, is to stop telling people what to do and simply do it for them inside a wrapper.

HBIT holds bitcoin exposure through other exchange traded products and then buys and sells options around it, guided by the firm's own quantitative signals, with the aim of taking the edge off the volatility. The construction is coherent. The name is doing something more interesting. A hedged bitcoin fund is a product that quietly concedes that the asset's defining characteristic is the thing buyers most want removed.

There is a version of this that is genuinely useful for an investor who wants the exposure and cannot stomach the ride. There is also a version where you pay an options budget and a management fee to own a less volatile bitcoin, which is, in a sense, the thing bitcoin was invented not to be.


BMO Asset-Backed Securities ETF (ZABS, plus hedged and US dollar classes, Toronto Stock Exchange)

Having already brought Canadian mortgage-backed securities into an ETF, BMO has moved down the securitisation aisle to asset-backed paper: the pooled receivables of auto loans, credit cards and consumer credit generally, wrapped in a fund that trades all day and settles in two.

This is the most quietly consequential listing in the batch. Securitised consumer credit is not a liquid market in any sense a retail investor would recognise and putting it behind a continuously quoted secondary listing is a real piece of financial engineering rather than a marketing exercise. It arrived in three share classes: unhedged, hedged and US dollar, which tells you exactly who the target buyer is: institutions with currency mandates, not people browsing tickers.

No leverage. No theme. Nothing in the name that would make anybody click on it.


CCF Peso Global Balanced ETP (BALP, London Stock Exchange)

I had this one filed as the calm product. Global, balanced, one ticker, no multiplier, no acronym that looks like a different acronym. Then I read its page.

BALP tracks a Solactive index denominated in Mexican pesos, with every non-peso exposure hedged back to the peso. Eleven constituents, fixed bespoke weights, rebalanced quarterly, holding other exchange-traded products rather than shares directly. The split is forty per cent equities, fifty-eight per cent fixed income and two per cent commodities, which makes “Balanced” a generous description of what is really a bond portfolio with an equity sleeve attached. As a piece of design it is entirely coherent and clearly built for one specific buyer: a Mexican investor who wants a global portfolio without the currency risk that normally arrives with it, in a single line on a statement.

It is also a white-label product, issued off the Leverage Shares platform. That is the same platform currently fronted by a 3x SpaceX ETP, a 3x Cerebras ETP and both a long and a short 3x DRAM ETP. There is nothing improper about this. White label is how a regional wealth manager brings a product to market without building an issuance business first, and it is genuinely useful plumbing. It does mean the most conservative listing in this batch and the most aggressive products in Europe share a legal wrapper and a website.

Bernie Thurston

Bernie Thurston is the founder and CEO of Ultumus, a leading provider of ETF and index data, calculation, and workflow solutions. With over 20 years of experience in financial technology, Bernie has been at the forefront of index and ETF innovation since 2003. His finance career began at Markit, where as Managing Director for Equities he designed and developed products for index and ETF composition and dividend forecasting from 2003 to 2011. He then founded and led DeltaOne Solutions as Managing Director, building it into a global provider of index and ETF trading data and technology services. The company managed over 100,000 multi-asset class products before being acquired by Markit in 2015. Following the acquisition, while working for an ETF issuer, Bernie identified fundamental issues in how index and ETF data was represented across the industry. This led him to found Ultumus in 2016, building solutions for ETF primary market operations. Under his leadership, Ultumus has grown into a market leader serving major financial institutions globally, with its ETF Order Management System (OMS) supporting create and redeem workflows worldwide and its PCF platform calculating and distributing portfolio composition files for ETF issuers across every major market. Bernie sold Ultumus to SIX Group in 2021, where it continues to expand across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific. Known for building lasting teams and leveraging cutting-edge technology, Bernie is focused on establishing Ultumus as the backbone of the global index and ETF industry through standardisation and automation.

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