The autonomous vehicle industry has a credibility problem.
For the better part of a decade, we've been promised that self-driving cars are just around the corner. Two years away. Maybe three. Five at the outside. The goalposts have moved so many times they've worn grooves in the field.
Elon Musk famously predicted a million robotaxis on the road by 2020. It is now 2026, and Tesla just launched a pilot program in Austin with twenty cars. Twenty. In a single city. After six years of promises.
Into this landscape of perpetual almost-there-ness comes the Rohill Rotaxi Autonomous Vehicle and Technology ETF, a fund designed for investors who believe that this time, finally, the robot cars are actually coming.
The thesis is not unreasonable, even if the timing has been spectacularly wrong before. Autonomous vehicle technology has genuinely improved. Waymo operates commercial robotaxi services in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin, completing over 100 million autonomous miles. They're reportedly seeking funding at a $100 billion valuation. That's not vaporware. That's real cars driving real people to real destinations without anyone behind the wheel.
Uber has announced partnerships with seemingly everyone in the space, aiming to operate robotaxi services in ten markets by the end of 2026. Lucid, Nuro, and Uber unveiled a production-intent robotaxi at CES this month. Nvidia's new Alpamayo platform promises to be the backbone for next-generation autonomous systems. Mercedes-Benz is rolling out advanced driver-assistance features in US models starting late this year.
The pieces are falling into place. The question is whether they'll fall into place fast enough to justify buying an ETF specifically themed around the concept.
Let's be clear about what “robotaxi” actually means in 2026.
Waymo operates in carefully geofenced areas where the company has mapped every curb, every traffic light, every potential obstacle with obsessive precision. Expand beyond those boundaries and the system gets confused. A power outage in San Francisco last week caused Waymo vehicles to halt in the middle of intersections, hazard lights blinking, blocking traffic until humans intervened.
Tesla's robotaxi pilot runs twenty vehicles in a single city under constant monitoring. They're not replacing Uber. They're running a very expensive science experiment with real passengers.
Motional, born from Hyundai and Aptiv, just rebooted its entire self-driving program after years of delays and multiple rounds of layoffs. They're promising commercial service in Las Vegas by end of year, which sounds great until you remember they've made similar promises before.
This is the industry you're betting on: genuinely impressive technology that remains stubbornly resistant to scaling.
The bull case for a robotaxi-focused ETF goes something like this: we're at an inflection point. The technology finally works in limited conditions. Regulatory frameworks are evolving to accommodate autonomous vehicles. The economics, once proven at scale, are compelling. A car that drives itself 24 hours a day generates far more revenue than one that sits parked 95% of the time.
Major automakers are pouring billions into autonomous development. Tech companies see it as the next great platform opportunity. The total addressable market, if self-driving ever achieves widespread adoption, is genuinely enormous. This is not a niche. This is transportation itself.
The bear case is equally straightforward: we've heard all of this before. The technology has been "almost ready" for years. Scaling from controlled pilots to mass deployment has proven harder than anyone anticipated. The unit economics remain unproven. Regulatory approval is inconsistent. Consumer trust is fragile. Every high-profile accident sets the industry back months.
And even in the bull case, picking winners is nearly impossible. Will Waymo dominate? Tesla? Some Chinese company we haven't heard of yet? A startup that doesn't exist today? An ETF gives you diversified exposure, which is another way of saying it ensures you'll own the losers along with the winners.
What makes the Rohill launch interesting is the timing. Robotaxi ETFs could have launched anytime in the past five years. The fact that someone chose January 2026 suggests they see something in the current moment.
And to be fair, the current moment is busier than usual. CES was packed with autonomous vehicle announcements. Nvidia is pushing hard on the software side. Multiple companies are promising commercial launches this year. The regulatory environment, at least in certain states, has become more accommodating.
But the autonomous vehicle industry has had “busy moments” before. Google demonstrated self-driving capability in 2012. That was thirteen years ago. We're still waiting for the revolution.
A robotaxi-themed ETF presumably holds some combination of the following: companies developing autonomous driving software, companies manufacturing the sensors and computing hardware those systems require, traditional automakers with self-driving programs, and perhaps some infrastructure plays around mapping and telecommunications.
This means your “robotaxi ETF” likely includes a lot of companies that derive minimal revenue from actual robotaxis. Nvidia sells chips for many applications beyond self-driving. Qualcomm makes modems. The auto manufacturers generate the vast majority of their revenue from cars with steering wheels that humans operate.
You're not really buying a robotaxi fund. You're buying a broad tech and auto fund with a thematic wrapper that sounds exciting in a pitch meeting.
Maybe none of that matters. Maybe the point of a thematic ETF is to capture a long-term secular trend, even if the path is messy and the holdings are imprecise.
The world probably is moving toward greater vehicle autonomy. The question is timing and pace. If you believe we're ten years from widespread robotaxi deployment, buying now gives you a decade of compounding exposure to the companies building that future. If you believe we're two years away, you're late. If you believe we're twenty years away, you're early.
Thematic investing is always a bet on timing. The robotaxi theme has been early for a very long time. Perhaps it's finally becoming on time.
Or perhaps we're about to add "2026" to the long list of years that were supposed to be “the year of the robotaxi” and weren't.
The technology is real but limited. The scaling challenges are immense. The regulatory landscape varies wildly by jurisdiction. Consumer acceptance remains uncertain. And the companies best positioned to win may not even be public yet.
Buying a robotaxi ETF in January 2026 is an act of faith. Faith that the technology will scale. Faith that regulatory barriers will fall. Faith that the companies in the fund will be the ones to benefit. Faith that this time, unlike all the other times, the promises will actually come true.
It could work. The autonomous future could finally arrive. The robot cars could fill our streets. The ETF could be perfectly positioned to capture that transformation.
Or we could be having this same conversation in 2030, marvelling at how the robotaxis are definitely, certainly, absolutely coming. Any day now. Two years away. Maybe three.